Western Visayas printed ₱152.75/kg in June 2026, down ₱31.56 from March and the steepest regional fall in the Philippines. Every write-up you will read blames the ASF detections and the border bans that followed. The monthly rows say otherwise: ₱17.18 of that ₱31.56 was already gone before June even started.
Which does not mean ASF is irrelevant. It means the causation runs in a stranger direction than anyone is telling you, and the province with the outbreak is the one whose price went up.
The monthly path, which is where the story is
A quarter-on-quarter number hides the shape. Here is every month of 2026 for the region and its five reporting provinces, liveweight farmgate in pesos per kilo.
| Geography | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Visayas (region) | 179.44 | 184.60 | 184.31 | 171.71 | 167.13 | 152.75 |
| Aklan | 194.89 | 176.80 | 193.24 | 160.02 | 175.09 | 126.34 |
| Antique | 162.17 | 187.36 | 160.42 | 182.15 | 170.09 | 169.30 |
| Capiz | 189.96 | 187.06 | 186.93 | 180.00 | 169.79 | 164.84 |
| Guimaras | 167.19 | 174.34 | 180.12 | 158.32 | 147.01 | 122.13 |
| Iloilo | 182.70 | 187.41 | 192.65 | 173.54 | 165.13 | 161.52 |
Negros Occidental used to report into Region VI. Republic Act 12000 moved it to the Negros Island Region, and PSA still carries an empty Region VI row for it, which will confuse you if you run your own query and get a blank where you expected a province.
Read down the region row. April is where it breaks: −₱12.60 in one month. May takes another −₱4.58. June takes −₱14.38. So the fall was underway for two full months before the DA lab returned a positive result for the Barotac Viejo samples on 29 June, which the Iloilo provincial government announced on 2 July.
Iloilo's own row makes the same point more sharply. Iloilo's worst month was April, at −₱19.11. Its June move, in the month the case was confirmed, was −₱3.61. The price had already done its falling.
What actually happened, in order
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 23 Jun 2026 | ASF confirmed in San Enrique, Negros Occidental |
| 24 Jun 2026 | Gov. Fredenil H. Castro signs the Capiz border order, effective immediately |
| 25 Jun 2026 | Negros Occidental's province-wide hog death count reaches 1,902 across 12 LGUs |
| 29 Jun 2026 | DA lab confirms Iloilo's first case in four years, Barotac Viejo, one sow and four pigs |
| 1 Jul 2026 | Cases confirmed in Bacolod and in La Libertad, Negros Oriental |
| 3 Jul 2026 | Bohol closes its border to Negros pigs and pork, EO 28 s.2026, 60 days |
| 7 Jul 2026 | Cebu closes its border to Negros pigs and pork, EO 39, 45 days |
Two corrections worth making, because the wrong versions are circulating.
Capiz's order is dated 24 June, not 10 July. The 10 July date is when The Manila Times reported it. The order was signed on the 24th and took effect that day. Its scope is genuinely disputed: the Inquirer and the Daily Guardian describe a ban on pigs, pork, hog carriers and traders from Iloilo and Negros Island, while The Manila Times describes a blanket prohibition on pork from every province outside Capiz. We are not going to average two newsrooms together and call it a fact. If you ship into Capiz, ring the Provincial Veterinarian's office and ask.
The 1,902 hog deaths are not San Enrique's, and are not all ASF. That figure is province-wide across 12 LGUs of Negros Occidental as of 25 June, and the province's own veterinarian said ASF was not solely responsible for it (The Manila Times, 2 July 2026). San Enrique's own reported toll is "more than 500", which is a bound rather than a count. Anyone quoting 1,902 as one municipality's ASF deaths is repeating a number that was never that.
Three reasons the ASF story does not hold up on its own
1. Aklan fell hardest and had no case. Aklan went from 193.24 in March to 126.34 in June, a fall of ₱66.90 a kilo, the fourth-largest of any Philippine province. There was no confirmed 2026 ASF detection in Aklan. Meanwhile Capiz, the province that closed its border first and had four towns declared red zones with hog deaths in Pontevedra and Roxas City, fell ₱22.09, the mildest fall among the provinces that fell at all.
If the virus and the bans were doing the work, those two should be the other way round.
2. Negros Occidental had the outbreak and went up. Its March figure was 160.43. It slid to 153.31 in April and 146.30 in May, which looks like a market weakening. Then San Enrique was confirmed on 23 June and the June figure printed 188.37, a jump of ₱42.07 in one month. Over the whole quarter it gained ₱27.94, one of the biggest rises in the country. The Negros Island Region as a whole rose ₱3.10 to ₱166.29/kg in June 2026.
3. And Negros Oriental, on the same island, fell ₱25.22 in the same month. From 160.38 in May to 135.16 in June. Same virus, same island, same weeks, opposite direction.
You cannot get all three of those out of one causal arrow.
So what does a movement ban actually do to a price?
Not what people assume. A ban does not lower prices, it splits a market in two and then the two halves move apart.
Inside a restricted zone, the pigs that were going to leave cannot leave. Supply that used to be somebody else's is suddenly all local, buyers know it, and the farmgate gives. Outside the zone, in the province that used to buy those pigs, the supply disappears and the local price firms. One event, two opposite moves, and a national average that shows neither.
Which side of the line you end up on is not decided by whether your province has the virus. It is decided by whether your province was a net seller or a net buyer of live pigs before the order was signed. Panay's provinces were net sellers into Negros, Cebu and Manila. Negros Occidental, once its own borders closed and Cebu and Bohol closed theirs to it, was left with whatever local demand it had against a herd that had just been reduced by disease and culling.
That is a mechanism, not a proof. We do not have transaction-level data and neither does anyone else writing about this. What we do have is a monthly series that contradicts the simple version, and saying so is more useful to you than a clean story that is wrong.
Do not let a buyer use "ASF" as a reason for a lowball. The provincial rows are public and so is the timing. If someone offers you ₱130 in Iloilo and says the outbreak did it, your answer is that Iloilo's biggest single-month fall was in April, before there was an outbreak, and that the province's June figure is 161.52. Then ask him what his real number is.
The thing that was actually squeezing Panay before June
The Sangguniang Panlalawigan of Iloilo held a committee hearing on 20 June 2026, three days before the first detection anywhere in the region, precisely because raisers were already in trouble. Board Member Rolito Cajilig put the farmgate at ₱160 to ₱170 a kilo against retail pork of ₱300 to ₱360. Cost of production is about ₱180. That is a loss on every animal, before any virus arrives.
Two numbers came out of that hearing that you should carry around:
- 1.2 million kilos of imported and shipped-in pork entered Iloilo in the first quarter of 2026, some of it routed through neighbouring provinces.
- 91.77% of Iloilo's swine inventory is backyard and small-scale. The people absorbing this are not corporations.
Nationally the same pressure is on: 851,760 MT of pork entered the country in 2025, and Executive Order 116 of 19 May 2026 raised the tariff-quota volume from 54,210 to 204,210 MT. A tightening herd has produced no pricing power because the gap is being filled from a freezer.
Pila na ang presyo sang baboy? is the wrong question this year. The better one is what it costs you to produce a kilo, because in Western Visayas that is currently the bigger number.
One good sign in this data: PSA's Iloilo figure of 161.52 and the provincial vet's ₱160 to ₱170 land in the same place. When the official series and the local trade read agree, you can negotiate off the published number with confidence. When they disagree, as they do nationally where SINAG says ₱180 to ₱190 and PSA's own months average ₱176.93, the official one has been closer to right all year.
What a Panay raiser does about it
Check your zone before you plan any movement, every time. Zones change weekly. Iloilo's provincial veterinary office was working to reclassify Barotac Viejo from red to pink within weeks of the detection, and the province logged 28 positive cases in 2025, 26 of them caught at border checkpoints rather than on farms. Your LGU and the BAI are the only current source. Our outbreak response guide covers what to do in the first 48 hours if it is your barangay.
Do not restock into a falling market on the assumption that it snaps back. Antique is the counter-example worth studying, up ₱8.88 while its neighbours collapsed, and the reason looks like a market that never had much to export in the first place. If your province is a net seller into a closed border, the price has further to fall than your neighbour's.
Tighten biosecurity now rather than after. Twenty-six of Iloilo's 28 cases in 2025 were intercepted at checkpoints, which tells you the pressure comes in on vehicles and traders, not out of the air. The ASF recovery-era guide has the practical version.
Reprice your batch honestly. At 161.52 in Iloilo or 126.34 in Aklan against ₱180 cost of production, the arithmetic on a 95 kg pig is a loss of ₱1,756 and ₱5,097 respectively. Print the negative number and decide with it in front of you rather than around it.
Free Tool
Break-Even Price Calculator
Put your province's June figure in rather than the national average and see what selling price the batch actually needs. In Western Visayas it will not be a comfortable answer.
And know where you sit nationally. Aklan and Guimaras are third- and fourth-cheapest of the 86 provinces PSA publishes, in the full provincial ranking. Central Visayas, one island east, was paying ₱208.73/kg in the same month, and the reasons why have nothing to do with anything a Panay raiser can control.
Bisaya / Cebuano
Presyo sa baboy sa Western Visayas, Hunyo 2026
- Western Visayas ₱152.75 kada kilo. Nikunhod og ₱31.56 sukad sa Marso. Kini ang labing dako nga pagkahulog sa tibuok nasud
- Wala kini gikan sa ASF lang. Nagsugod ang pagkunhod sa Abril pa, duha ka bulan sa wala pa ang unang kaso sa Panay
- Ang Aklan ang labing nadaot, ₱126.34. Apan walay kumpirmadong kaso sa ASF sa Aklan
- Ang Negros Occidental, diin gyud ang ASF, nisaka og ₱27.94. Nisaka kini og ₱42.07 gikan Mayo hangtod Hunyo. Ang Negros Oriental, sa samang isla, nikunhod og ₱25.22
- Ang Iloilo ₱161.52. Parehas ra kini sa giingon sa provincial vet nga ₱160 hangtod ₱170, mao nga masaligan ang numero
- Ang ban wala magpaubos sa presyo sa tanan. Gibahin niini ang merkado. Kung ang inyong probinsya kanunay nagbaligya sa gawas, ubos ang presyo. Kung palit-anay lang sa sulod, taas
Ayaw pagtuo sa biyahero nga moingon nga ASF ang hinungdan sa iyang gamay nga tanyag. Ang datos publiko. Pangutan-a siya sa iyang tinuod nga presyo.
What to watch next
July is a blank month. PSA surveyed and published no figure for any geography in the country, and a blank is a blank, never a zero and never June carried forward. August prints in October.
When it does, the row to watch is not Iloilo. It is Negros Occidental. If the June jump to 188.37 holds through July and August, then something structural changed there and the "outbreak equals crash" reflex needs retiring altogether. If it drops back into the 150s, June was a thin-sample month in a province mid-crisis and we should say so.
We will run the same query and publish whichever it is. The whole series is on our data pages as a CSV with a source URL on every row, and the province grid draws two years of your own market in one screen, so you can check the answer before we get around to writing it up.
