BAI's newest ASF bulletin, as of 9 October 2026, counts 226 barangays with active African swine fever across 86 cities and municipalities in 24 provinces. That is down from 293 barangays in 31 provinces on 24 September, and still more than 37 times the 6 barangays BAI listed on 22 May. This post is about that curve.
The curve, one bulletin at a time
The vertical axis is fitted to the data and does not start at zero.
Source: ASF active barangays, Bureau of Animal Industry, latest figure October 2026 (full series).
BAI publishes a one-page bulletin about every two weeks. Each is a row in the ASF count series, which the industry dashboard draws as one bar per bulletin. The 2026 readings from the May low:
| Bulletin as of | Active barangays |
|---|---|
| 22 May | 6 |
| 5 Jun | 8 |
| 26 Jun | 15 |
| 10 Jul | 21 |
| 24 Jul | 43 |
| 7 Aug | 65 |
| 21 Aug | 92 |
| 4 Sep | 154 |
| 24 Sep | 293 |
| 9 Oct | 226 |
The bulletin never defines "active". The closest rule in writing is DA Administrative Order No. 30, Series of 2021: a city or municipality with "no reported outbreak for at least 40 days from the last day of cleaning and disinfection" may apply to move from an infected (red) zone to a buffer (pink) zone, and sentinel pigs tested at day 40 take it from pink to yellow. A zone rule, not a barangay rule, but it is the clock everyone works to. Naga City went from red back to pink on 9 September after BAI reviewed its reports and lab results (Daily Tribune, 10 September 2026), and by 9 October Naga was gone from the Camarines Sur row. A province leaving the list is barangays finishing a window, not a lab clearing the virus.
Where the 226 are: 24 September against 9 October
The table I wanted and could not find anywhere, built from the two bulletins' province rows: barangays with active ASF, each province on 9 October against itself on 24 September.
| Province | 24 Sep | 9 Oct |
|---|---|---|
| Isabela | 117 | 74 |
| Nueva Ecija | 12 | 24 |
| Negros Oriental | 36 | 19 |
| Camarines Sur | 7 | 18 |
| Cagayan | 2 | 13 |
| Ifugao | 18 | 13 |
| Pangasinan | 5 | 11 |
| La Union | 4 | 9 |
| Tarlac | 6 | 8 |
| Aurora | 0 | 7 |
| Quirino | 3 | 6 |
| Pampanga | 5 | 5 |
| Catanduanes | 1 | 4 |
| Cebu | 3 | 3 |
| Mindoro Occidental | 1 | 2 |
| Southern Leyte | 0 | 2 |
| Benguet | 6 | 1 |
| Surigao del Sur | 15 | 1 |
| Zamboanga del Sur | 3 | 1 |
| Batangas | 1 | 1 |
| Bataan | 0 | 1 |
| Romblon | 0 | 1 |
| Zamboanga Sibugay | 0 | 1 |
| Sultan Kudarat | 0 | 1 |
| 13 provinces dropped off | 48 | 0 |
| Total | 293 | 226 |
The thirteen that dropped off, with 24 September counts: Agusan del Sur 13, Agusan del Norte 7, Northern Samar 6, Kalinga 4, Capiz 4, Mountain Province 3, Negros Occidental 3, Leyte 2, Quezon 2, Zambales 1, Palawan 1, Albay 1, Surigao del Norte 1.
Three things the headline hides.
First, it is not a national fall. By island group, Mindanao went from 39 barangays to 4, the Visayas from 54 to 24, Luzon from 200 to 198. The six new provinces are small counts in places clean a fortnight earlier.
Second, inside Luzon the weight moved. Cagayan Valley is still the centre with 93 of the 226, down from 122: Isabela cleared 43 barangays while Cagayan province added 11 across eight towns. Central Luzon doubled from 24 to 45, Ilocos went from 9 to 20, Bicol from 9 to 22, the Cordillera halved. Cagayan's provincial vet office counted seven affected towns and asked the governor for checkpoint staff (Bombo Radyo Tuguegarao, 9 October 2026), Lal-lo locked down two barangays on 14 October (PNA) and is not yet in the list, and Maria Aurora culled 182 pigs in Barangay Baubo on 23 September (The Manila Times, 25 September 2026).
Third, the cumulative line on the same page says the virus did not slow. BAI's running count of barangays affected since 2019 was 6,783 on 24 September and 6,848 on 9 October. A barangay enters that tally only the first time it is infected, so at least 65 caught ASF for the first time in those 15 days, and at least 132 aged off the active list. The 40-day clock did that, mostly for August's Negros and Mindanao outbreaks: Negros Oriental culled 539 pigs in July and August (DigiCast Negros, 2 September 2026) and is at 19 barangays from 36, and Lamitan in Basilan, 113 raisers hit by late July (Philstar, 28 July 2026), is in neither bulletin.
So, is 226 good news? In Negros, Agusan or Surigao, a little. In Luzon, no. Luzon's share of zoned areas in the infected band rose from 27% to 29% between the two bulletins, by BAI's own recovery bar. The next bulletin, due in the last week of October, will carry Lal-lo and whatever Nueva Ecija's 24 barangays seed. I expect Luzon to print higher.
If your province is on the list: the next 60 days
The outbreak response post covers the first 24 hours and the biosecurity starter kit prices the boots and bleach. This is the calendar.
- Today. Ask the municipal agriculture office for your barangay's zone colour and the date it was set. Zone and bulletin differ: The Manila Times reported on 12 October that 9 Iloilo towns were still red and 19 pink while BAI listed no active barangay there. A buyer quotes whichever knocks your price down.
- This week. Stop every pig movement and every visitor past the gate for the full 40 days. Solana's municipal vet named the usual routes alongside its 45-day quarantine: technicians going farm to farm, dirty pens, kitchen leftovers (Bombo Radyo Tuguegarao, 3 October 2026).
- Any day a pig dies suddenly. Report it within 24 hours. The DA's 1-7-10 protocol, depopulation within 1 km, surveillance within 7 km and reporting within 10 km of a confirmed case, starts from the report (DA Memorandum Circular No. 10, Series of 2019, as summarised in a 2025 review in Frontiers in Veterinary Science). A hidden case stretches everyone's 40 days.
- Before any cull, be RSBSA-listed or hold proof of farm ownership. DA Region 7's indemnity in Cebu City is ₱4,000 per piglet, ₱8,000 per grower and ₱12,000 per breeder or finisher, capped at ₱50,000 per farm (Daily Tribune, 24 September 2026); Aurora's is 90% of value for registered raisers and 20% for unregistered. Paperwork is the difference.
- Around 23 to 28 October, read Bulletin #2026-19 at BAI's reports page. If your province is off it, that is one window closed, not a clearance. Do not restock until the municipal vet confirms pink or yellow and sentinel pigs are in, per the recovery-era biosecurity post.
- Around 15 December, 60 days and four bulletins on, if your barangay has stayed off the list and the zone has moved, start pricing weaners. Not before.
Check your zone the day you act. Cebu confirmed Ginatilan on 18 September and declared three Cebu City barangays hotspots within the week, in a province that called itself ASF-free in July.
What it is doing to the price
The surge sits on a price already under water. PSA's last official quarter is ₱172.44/kg liveweight for Q2 2026, the DA put the national farmgate at about ₱150/kg in August against ₱215 a year earlier (The Manila Times, 28 September 2026), and industry groups put cost at ₱180 to ₱190 a kilo (Daily Tribune, 2 October 2026). Secretary Tiu Laurel blames raisers dumping stock early out of ASF fear (Daily Tribune, 7 September 2026); Solana's vet said the same of his town. How the bans landed on a market already sliding is in the Western Visayas price post.
What the vaccine changes, and what it does not
AVAC ASF LIVE has been cleared for commercial sale since 2 September 2026, fatteners only, through BAI-accredited outlets (DA). It does not touch the 40-day clock or cover your sow, and the swine practitioners' college asked on 12 October for a DIVA test, lot-by-lot sequencing and no extra-label use (porciNews, 13 October 2026). Who qualifies, the paperwork, and why there is still no price per dose is in the ASF vaccine post.
Bisaya / Cebuano
Ang pinakabag-ong bulletin sa BAI, petsa 9 Oktubre 2026, nag-ihap og 226 ka barangay nga naay aktibong ASF sa 24 ka probinsya. Niadtong 24 Septyembre, 293 sa 31. Ayaw pagtuo nga nahuman na. Ang pag-ubos naggikan sa Mindanao, 39 ngadto sa 4, ug sa Visayas, 54 ngadto sa 24. Ang Luzon 200 ngadto sa 198 lang. Sa Negros Oriental 19 na lang gikan sa 36, sa Cebu 3 gihapon.
Kung naa ang imong probinsya sa listahan, mao kini ang buhaton. Una, adto sa Municipal Agriculture Office karon ug pangutan-a ang kolor sa zone sa inyong barangay. Lahi ang zone sa bulletin. Ikaduha, ayaw pagpagawas o pagpasulod og baboy sulod sa 40 ka adlaw. Kana ang lagda sa DA Administrative Order 30, 2021: 40 ka adlaw nga walay bag-ong kaso human sa kataposang pag-disinfect, una mahimong pink ang red. Ayaw pasudla ang technician nga naglibot sa mga uma, ug ayaw pakan-a og lamaw nga wala maluto.
Ikatulo, kung kalit nga namatay ang baboy, i-report dayon sa munisipyo sulod sa 24 oras. Ang gitago nga kaso mopataas sa 40 ka adlaw sa tanan ninyong silingan. Ikaupat, pa-listing sa RSBSA karon. Sa Cebu City, ang bayad sa DA Region 7 kay ₱4,000 kada piglet, ₱8,000 kada grower, ug ₱12,000 kada breeder o finisher, para sa rehistrado lang. Sa Aurora, 90 porsyento para sa rehistrado, 20 para sa dili.
Ikalima, basaha ang sunod nga bulletin sa BAI sa kataposang semana sa Oktubre. Kung wala na ang inyong probinsya, usa ka bintana ra kana nga nasirado, dili pa clearance. Ayaw pa pagpalit og weaner hangtod dili moingon ang municipal vet nga pink o yellow na.
