A 90 kg pig sold at February 2026's national farmgate, ₱176.31/kg per PSA, brings in about ₱15,900. That same pig costs roughly ₱16,200 to produce at the ₱180/kg cost of production that SINAG and NatFed arrived at independently. Read that again. The average Philippine hog farm is currently selling below its own cost. In a year when the Christmas premium actually lands, the same pig brings in ₱18,000 to ₱18,900, and the sale month is the whole margin on the batch.
But the last Christmas did not deliver at all. December 2025 was the first in more than 30 years where liveweight prices did not rise, and imports are the reason. So read this as a pattern with real money behind it in a tight-supply year, not a guarantee.
Free Tool
Pig Profit Simulator
Plug in different sale-month prices and the profit simulator shows you exactly how much your batch timing is worth. Try selling the same batch in December vs February and watch the line move.
The Philippine Pork Price Calendar
Pork is the most-consumed meat in the Philippines, and demand tracks the Filipino fiesta and holiday calendar. The pattern repeats most years, but feed costs, ASF outbreaks, and import volumes can flatten or even invert it. The 2025 collapse is the clearest proof that the calendar is a tendency, not a law.
Below is the seasonal shape of the farmgate curve, stated as a lift or drag against the year's own baseline rather than as fixed peso prices. That is deliberate. Absolute price levels have moved a long way in two years, and any table that hard-codes a "₱210 December" is selling you a number the market has not paid.
| Month | Farmgate vs. the year's baseline | Why |
|---|---|---|
| January (1-15) | +₱10 to +₱20 | Tail of Christmas demand, New Year |
| January (16-31) | flat to +₱5 | Post-holiday drop begins |
| February | baseline, often under it | Lowest demand period of the year |
| March (early) | baseline | Off-season, before Holy Week build-up |
| March (late) to April | +₱5 to +₱15 | Holy Week premium, Easter gatherings |
| May | +₱3 to +₱10 | Flores de Mayo, Pahiyas, Santa Cruzan fiestas |
| June | baseline | Mid-year |
| July | baseline | Mid-year |
| August | -₱5 to baseline | Pre-holiday lull |
| September | baseline to +₱5 | Build-up begins |
| October | +₱5 to +₱12 | All Saints' Day demand, lechon orders |
| November | +₱10 to +₱18 | Holiday-season ramp-up |
| December (1-15) | +₱12 to +₱22 | Christmas build-up, lechon orders open |
| December (16-31) | +₱15 to +₱30 | PEAK in a tight-supply year, Noche Buena and Media Noche |
Now fill in the baseline, because that is the part guides get wrong. PSA's national liveweight series ran ₱182.83/kg for Q4 2025 and ₱176.03/kg for Q1 2026 (₱172.56 in January, ₱176.31 in February, ₱179.23 in March). As of May 2026, SINAG puts the industry average at ₱180-190/kg and eFeedLink's trade quotes run ₱183-193/kg. Call the working baseline ₱185. On that base, a genuine December peak lands somewhere near ₱200-₱210, not the ₱220-plus that old guides quote. And in December 2025 the lift was zero.
The peak month, in a tight-supply year, is December, with the strongest two-week window from December 16 to December 31. The second peak is the 10-day window around Easter, usually late March to mid-April depending on the year. The lowest month is February, with August-September the secondary trough. In 2026 the actual low was January.
One number to anchor on, and it is not the one you have been told. The DA set a ₱210/kg minimum farmgate price on 4 November 2025. It has never been reached. Not in a single month of PSA's national series, and not in a single region: the closest anyone got was Cordillera at ₱208.88/kg in March 2026. It is an unenforced target, not a guaranteed floor, and no trader is obliged to pay it. Plan against what you can actually get, roughly ₱185/kg as of May 2026, against a cost of production near ₱180/kg. That leaves about ₱5/kg, and it is why so many raisers are quietly at break-even.
What 2025 Taught Us About the Premium
This is the part most seasonal-pricing guides skip, and it is the most important section here.
In a typical year the Christmas lift is reliable enough to plan a whole cycle around. Late 2024 into early 2025 was a textbook example: ASF had thinned supply, holiday demand spiked, farmgate ran strong, and Metro Manila retail pork pushed toward ₱400/kg by early 2025, per PCAARRD reporting.
Then it inverted. PSA put the Q3 2025 national farmgate average at ₱191.51/kg liveweight, up from ₱175.82/kg a year earlier, but the price kept sliding through the holidays. Q4 2025 closed at ₱182.83/kg and Q1 2026 came in at ₱176.03/kg, with January the low at ₱172.56. Against a cost of production of about ₱180/kg, that is the whole national industry selling at or under cost for a full quarter. Industry groups said it plainly: for the first time in more than 30 years of pig farming, prices did not improve in December and kept dropping into January.
The cause was not weak holiday demand. It was supply. Pork imports cleared roughly 851,760 metric tons in 2025, up about 16% from 733,729 metric tons in 2024, a record. Executive Order 62 cut pork tariffs to around 15-25% from the previous 30-40%, so imported pork landed near ₱120/kg, well under what a Filipino backyard raiser can produce for. The DA has pushed to restore the tariff to 40 percent, but the movement has gone the other way: EO 116, signed 19 May 2026, quadrupled the tariff-quota volume to 204,210 MT. More cheap pork is being invited in, not less.
Note what this does to the "tight supply means high prices" logic. The national herd is 8.70 million head as of 31 March 2026, the smallest first quarter since 1994, about 31% under the 12.70 million pre-ASF peak of July 2019. A herd that thin should be pricing like gold. It is not, because imports fill the gap. Do not expect a small domestic herd to rescue your December price.
The takeaway is not "ignore the calendar." The seasonal demand is still there. The takeaway is that the premium only shows up when domestic supply is tight relative to demand. When the market is flooded with cheap imports, December behaves like February. Before you bank on a Christmas price, check the import trend, not just the date. The DA price monitoring portal and pig-raiser groups post weekly liveweight figures, and that current number beats any historical average in a guide.
What the Christmas Premium Is Actually Worth
Here is a worked 10-pig backyard batch at prices the market has actually paid, not the ones old guides quote. Cost is set at ₱180/kg liveweight, the cost of production SINAG and NatFed both land on.
| Scenario | February 2026 sale | May 2026 sale | December, tight-supply year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average weight per pig | 92 kg | 92 kg | 92 kg |
| Sale price (₱/kg LW) | ₱176 | ₱185 | ₱200 |
| Gross per pig | ₱16,192 | ₱17,020 | ₱18,400 |
| Gross, 10-pig batch | ₱161,920 | ₱170,200 | ₱184,000 |
| Cost to produce (₱180/kg LW) | ₱165,600 | ₱165,600 | ₱165,600 |
| Net, 10-pig batch | -₱3,680 | +₱4,600 | +₱18,400 |
Look at the first column before anything else. At February 2026's national farmgate, the average 10-pig batch lost money. Not a thin margin, an actual loss of about ₱368 a head. At May 2026 prices the same batch clears ₱4,600, which is ₱460 a pig for five and a half months of feeding. That is the market as it stands, and no amount of clever timing changes it.
The third column is what a real Christmas premium buys: about ₱18,400 on ten pigs, roughly ₱13,800 more than a May sale. On a 5-pig batch, ₱6,900. On a 20-pig semi-commercial batch, ₱27,600. It is still the biggest single lever a backyard raiser has. It is also a column that has not happened since 2024. December 2025 delivered nothing, and if imports run at 2025's pace, December 2026 will not either.
So the honest version. Timing your sale is worth real money, but only in a year when domestic supply is tight relative to demand, and the DA's ₱210 minimum price does not create that year for you. In 2026 the more urgent question is whether your own cost of production is under ₱180/kg at all. If it is not, no sale month saves the batch. For the full income math on a standard batch, see our breakdown of pig farming profit on 10 pigs.
And most farmers do not time it at all. They sell in March, June, or whenever the pigs hit 90 kg, then wonder why piggery does not pay.
Backwards-Engineering the Cycle
To sell into the Christmas window (December 15 to January 5 in a normal year), plan backward from the sale date:
| Sale Window | Buy Weaners | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| December 15-31 | June 25 to July 10 | About 5 to 5.5 month grow-out, peak window |
| January 1-15 | July 11 to July 25 | Catches Media Noche and New Year demand |
| Holy Week (Apr) | Mid-October | Adjust to the actual Easter date each year |
| Easter (10 days) | Late October | Secondary premium window |
| All Saints' Day (Nov 1) | Mid-May | Smaller premium, mostly Luzon |
| Sinulog, Cebu (Jan 19) | Late July | Regional, strong only in Visayas |
The standard backyard timeline for a Large White or hybrid pig:
- Day 0, weaner purchase: about 25 kg, roughly 25-28 days old
- Day 30-60: 25-45 kg, starter to grower transition
- Day 60-120: 45-75 kg, grower phase
- Day 120-165: 75-95 kg, finisher phase
- Day 165, market: 90-95 kg liveweight
That is about 5 to 5.5 months. Native or slow-growing crossbreeds add 1 to 2 months. Well-managed commercial operations with optimized feed and genetics shave off 10-15 days, but for most backyard farmers the 5.5-month timeline is the realistic one to plan against. Our grow-out timeline guide covers the weight curve in detail.
Practical planning:
- Mark your calendar in May. Decide your target sale month for December.
- Confirm your weaner supplier in early June. Multipliers fill July weaner slots fast. They all know about the Christmas premium too.
- Buy weaners in the first week of July. That builds in a 10-day buffer if pigs grow slower than planned.
- Plan for two cycles. First: June weaner to December sale. Second: November weaner to April sale (Holy Week). Two premium-window attempts per year beats one.
Why Most Farmers Miss the Peak
Three reasons backyard farmers consistently miss the Christmas window:
1. Cashflow Constraints
Buying weaners in June or July means having ₱40,000-₱80,000 in cash sitting ready. A lot of backyard farmers buy weaners when they have money, not when the calendar says to. Five months later the pigs hit market weight in February or April, outside the premium window.
Fix: Plan one cycle ahead. Use proceeds from the previous cycle to fund the next weaner purchase, or set aside ₱4,000-₱8,000 a month from January specifically for July weaners.
2. Health Emergencies and Slow Growth
A pig that takes 6.5 months instead of 5.5 pushes the sale from December into January or February. Usual causes: poor feed quality, undiagnosed parasites, mild but persistent respiratory disease, or a feed transition that did not go smoothly.
Fix: Weigh monthly. If your pigs are not averaging 18-22 kg gain per month, intervene early. Deworm, check feed quality, adjust the ration. Do not wait until December to discover your pigs are 20 kg short. For parasite control, follow a vet-recommended schedule rather than guessing.
3. Selling Pressure From Traders
Traders know the premium is coming and will lean on you to sell in November or early December, "before prices drop" or "before the supply glut." Some of that is real, prices do soften after December 31, but a lot of it is them trying to lock in your supply below peak.
Fix: Know the regional farmgate price reported by the DA and your local trader association. Do not sell more than ₱5/kg below the current week's reported price without a real reason. Talk to 2-3 buyers per sale, not just the first one who calls.
The Holy Week Premium
The Holy Week premium is the second-best window, and it is underrated because it moves by date every year (Easter falls between March 22 and April 25).
How the Premium Works
- 10-15 days before Easter: prices start climbing as lechoneros and households order pigs for Easter Sunday.
- 5 days before Easter: the peak, typically a ₱5-15/kg lift over the off-season baseline.
- Easter Sunday: lechon demand peaks, farmgate stable at the high.
- 5 days after Easter: a sharp drop back to normal.
The window is narrower than Christmas, roughly 10-14 days versus three weeks, but the lift is real in a tight-supply year. On a 10-pig batch of 92 kg pigs, a ₱5-15/kg lift is ₱4,600 to ₱13,800 in extra gross. The same import caveat applies: a flooded market mutes this window too. Holy Week 2026 does not look like it moved the national number much: March closed at ₱179.23/kg, only about ₱3 above February, and PSA has not published April yet.
Planning for Holy Week
Work the weaner purchase date back from each year's Easter date:
- Easter on March 27, 2026: buy weaners around October 10-15, 2025
- Easter on April 5, 2026: buy weaners around October 20-25, 2025
- Easter on April 17, 2027: buy weaners around November 1-5, 2026
A simple rule: Easter date minus 5 months and 15 days lands you on the weaner-purchase week.
Local Fiesta Premiums
Do not underestimate local fiesta demand. If your barangay or town has a major annual fiesta, the local pork market sees a 2-3 day spike that can match Holy Week prices, and local fiesta demand is far less exposed to the import problem than the national farmgate.
Examples that move local pork prices:
- Sinulog, Cebu, January 19: strong premium in Cebu and nearby provinces
- Ati-Atihan, Aklan, January, third Sunday: local Aklan demand
- Panagbenga, Baguio, February: pulls demand from Benguet pig farms
- Pahiyas, Lucban, Quezon, May 15: Quezon province demand
- Kadayawan, Davao, August, third week: Davao region pull
- MassKara, Bacolod, October, third week: Negros Occidental demand
- Local town fiestas: almost every town has one, ask your barangay for the dates
For these, the premium is shorter (1-3 days) and localized. Sell to local lechoneros and meat vendors, not Manila traders. That 2-3 day window matters most if you are a small backyard farm moving 5-10 pigs.
What to Do When You Miss the Window
Sometimes pigs grow slower than expected, or you miss the July buying window. You are stuck with pigs ready to sell in February or August. Now what?
Option 1: Hold and grow heavier. A pig sold at 110 kg in February still beats the same pig at 90 kg in February. The extra 20 kg costs roughly ₱2,500-₱3,500 in feed and returns 20 kg at about ₱185/kg, so ₱3,700. Roughly break-even to a slight gain, and thinner than it looks once feed sits at ₱34.90-₱38.20/kg. Only worth it if you have feed budget and pen space, and watch the fat: buyers dock overly fat pigs.
Option 2: Sell direct to lechoneros. Off-season, traders pay the least but lechoneros still need stock. Cutting the middleman is worth roughly ₱10-15/kg, so about ₱190-₱195/kg against February 2026's ₱176/kg farmgate. That is the difference between a losing batch and a small profit, and it is the single cheapest fix on this page. It needs lechonero relationships you maintain year-round.
Option 3: Process into longganisa, tocino, or sisig. Off-season retail meat sales beat liveweight farmgate by a wide margin. NatFed puts the trader and biyahero margin at about ₱120/kg, and NCR retail as of 12 July 2026 is ₱379.43/kg liempo, ₱327.55 kasim, ₱325.29 pigue. That gap is the whole reason processing pays. A 90 kg pig butchered and processed into longganisa and tocino can clear ₱25,000-₱30,000 retail versus around ₱16,600 liveweight. It needs permits, capability, and a market. Not for beginners.
Option 4: Accept it and plan better next cycle. Most backyard farmers hit one peak window a year, not both. In a tight-supply year that one window is still ₱10,000-₱18,000 ahead of hitting neither. In a year like 2026 it is the difference between break-even and a loss.
Free Tool
Break-Even Price Calculator
Plug in your weaner cost, feed cost, and target sale-month price to see whether your batch breaks even or earns. The calculator runs the math at any farmgate price you enter.
A Quick Note on Feed Prices
Feed costs also move seasonally, just less violently than pork prices. Corn and soybean meal, the two biggest feed inputs, tend to rise August-October on post-typhoon supply worries and ease February-April after harvest.
For backyard farmers buying B-MEG, Thunderbird, or Vitarich, that shows up as ₱30-₱80/sack swings across the year. Smaller than the ₱10-₱25/kg swing in pork prices, but it stacks on the same side: feed is dearest right when you are growing out the Christmas batch. As of 12 July 2026, premium grower and finisher runs ₱34.90-₱38.20/kg, so ₱1,747 to ₱1,910 a 50 kg bag. That is up ₱1-2/kg through 2026 and no miller has announced a rollback, so budget the Christmas batch at the top of that range, not the bottom. Feed is roughly 57% of hog operating cost (PIDS), which means a ₱2/kg feed increase eats most of the ₱5/kg you are clearing over cost right now. Our feed economics deep-dive has the full picture, and current regional farmgate is tracked in our liveweight price by region guide.
Bisaya / Cebuano
Para sa mga mag-uuma
Kanus-a ang pinakamaayong panahon mobaligya og baboy?
Sa naandang tuig, Disyembre 15 hangtod Enero 5, panahon sa Pasko ug Bag-ong Tuig. Ang presyo sa liveweight kasagaran motaas og ₱15 hangtod ₱30/kg labaw sa Pebrero. Sa 10 ka baboy, kana mga ₱13,500 hangtod ₱27,000 nga dugang nga ganansya.
Pero pagbantay. Niadtong 2025, wala motaas ang presyo bisan Pasko. Mao kini ang unang higayon sulod sa kapin 30 ka tuig. Ang hinungdan, daghan kaayong imported nga karne nga barato. Mao nga ang kalendaryo dili garantiya. Ang pinakaimportante, tan-awa ang presyo karon sa imong lugar matag semana, dili ang luma nga numero sa mga guide.
Mga importante nga petsa:
- Christmas peak: Disyembre 16-31. Palita ang weaner sa Hunyo 25 hangtod Hulyo 10.
- New Year: Enero 1-15. Palita ang weaner sa Hulyo 11-25.
- Holy Week: mga 5 ka adlaw una pa ang Easter, gamay nga premium ₱5 hangtod ₱15/kg. Palita ang weaner mga Oktubre 10-25, depende sa eksaktong petsa sa Easter.
- Lokal nga fiesta: pangutan-a sa barangay kung kanus-a ang tuig-tuig nga fiesta. Maayong mobaligya 1 hangtod 2 ka adlaw una. Kini nga demand dili kaayo maapektuhan sa imported nga karne.
Tulo ka komon nga sayop:
- Sayop nga panahon mopalit og weaner. Kung mopalit ka sa Marso, mahimong Agosto na ang baligya, kanus-a barato ang presyo. Plano-a backwards, kuhaa 5.5 ka bulan balik gikan sa petsa nga gusto nimong mobaligya.
- Walay cashflow plan. Kinahanglan naa kay ₱40,000 hangtod ₱80,000 nga andam sa Hunyo para sa weaner. Kung mopalit ka lang kung naa kay kwarta, dili nimo masulod ang peak window.
- Mosalig sa pressure sa trader. Sa Nobyembre o sayong Disyembre, moingon ang mga trader nga ibaligya na kay mahulog ang presyo. Kasagaran dili kaayo mahulog hangtod Bag-ong Tuig. Pangutan-a og 2 hangtod 3 ka buyer una ka mobaligya.
Usa pa, ug importante kini. Ang DA nagbutang og ₱210/kg nga minimum farmgate price niadtong Nobyembre 4, 2025. Pero wala pa gyud kana maabot, bisan usa ka bulan sa datos sa PSA, bisan asa nga rehiyon. Dili kana garantiya, target lang. Ang tinuod nga presyo karon, mga ₱185/kg (SINAG, Mayo 2026), samtang ang gasto sa pagpadako mga ₱180/kg. Sa ato pa, ang kasagaran nga uma nagabaligya sa iyang kaugalingong gasto. Ayaw pag-plano nga makadawat ka og ₱210.
Kung tulay ka sa mga kumpanya sama sa Monterey o CPF, parehas ra ang per-head fee tibuok tuig, dili nimo makuha ang seasonal premium. Ang independent farmers ra ang makaganansya sa Christmas ug Holy Week math.
Related Reading
- Cost to Raise a Pig in the Philippines, full cost breakdown per cycle
- Liveweight Pig Price by Region, current regional farmgate prices
- Pig Farming Profit on 10 Pigs, full income math for a 10-pig batch
- How Long Until a Pig Is Ready to Sell, full grow-out timeline
- Profit Simulator, run your batch through different sale-month prices
Sources
- Philippine Statistics Authority, farmgate price of pigs for slaughter, liveweight: ₱191.51/kg in Q3 2025 (up from ₱175.82/kg in Q3 2024), ₱182.83/kg in Q4 2025, and ₱172.56 / ₱176.31 / ₱179.23 per kg for January, February and March 2026 (Q1 2026 mean ₱176.03). Regional, March 2026: Cordillera ₱208.88, Eastern Visayas ₱206.70, Central Luzon ₱178.41, Negros ₱163.19, SOCCSKSARGEN ₱152.63: psa.gov.ph and OpenSTAT farmgate price database
- Department of Agriculture, ₱210/kg liveweight minimum farmgate price set 4 November 2025. It has not been reached in any month of the PSA national series or in any region since it was set: da.gov.ph and Philippine News Agency
- SINAG industry average liveweight price of ₱180-190/kg (May 2026) and cost of production of about ₱180/kg, corroborated independently by NatFed; NatFed also puts the trader and biyahero margin at about ₱120/kg
- PSA swine inventory: 8.70 million head as of 31 March 2026, the lowest first quarter since 1994, against the pre-ASF peak of 12.70 million (1 July 2019)
- Executive Order 116, signed 19 May 2026, raising the pork minimum access volume (tariff quota) to 204,210 MT
- BusinessWorld, "Floor price for live hogs set at P210 per kilo," 4 November 2025 (DA floor price, import-flood context, recommendation to restore the 40% tariff): bworldonline.com
- BusinessWorld, "Surge in meat imports fails to ease pork, chicken prices," 29 January 2026 (2025 pork imports of 851,760 MT, up about 16% from 733,729 MT in 2024; Executive Order 62 tariff cuts; supply gap): bworldonline.com
- Department of Agriculture price monitoring portal, current weekly regional farmgate and retail pork figures: da.gov.ph/price-monitoring
- PCAARRD-DOST, "Pork Plight in the Philippines: ASF Impact, Import Surge, and Market Strain" (ASF and 2024-2025 holiday-demand context, elevated Metro Manila retail pork): ispweb.pcaarrd.dost.gov.ph
Figures are dated where stated and were re-verified against primary sources on 12 July 2026. PSA's national farmgate series runs through March 2026; anything after that is trade reporting, not official statistics. Verify your current local farmgate weekly before timing a sale.
