Example Scenarios

What this means

The wizard returns a clean GO. Composite scores in the 75+ band almost always come from the combination this raiser has: real cycles finished, market locked, owned land, and feed buffer. He is the rare profile where doubling the batch is the right call.

The 8-step action plan still kicks in. Order matters: confirm zone status again, update LGU registration to reflect the larger batch, lock the viajero in writing for the next 5 months, then expand the pen before sourcing weanlings. Most second-cycle scale-ups skip the writing-it-down step and get burned when the viajero unexpectedly drops the price at pickup.

Realistic capital of ₱260,000 covers a 20-head batch with a small pen extension. The contingency figure of ₱312,000 is what you actually need in the account — feed spikes, a mortality cluster, or a delayed pickup all eat into the realistic figure fast.

What this means

The wizard does not stop her — but it tells her to start with 5 pigs, not 10. The flags driving the caution verdict are real: she has never finished a cycle, her market is the lowest-paying tier, and her feed buffer cannot survive a sustained spike. Each one alone is manageable; stacked together they double the chance of a failed first cycle.

Halving the batch keeps her capital exposure under ₱60,000 while still giving her a full cycle of real experience. Most first-cycle losses happen because raisers buy what they can afford instead of what they can manage. A 5-head batch is what she can manage. A 10-head batch is what her capital will technically pay for.

The plan also flags her market access. Selling to neighbours works for 1–2 pigs at fiesta time. For a true 5-head batch she needs a viajero contact before she stocks. The wizard's action plan puts "identify your buyer" ahead of pen construction for exactly this reason.

What this means

Despite the strong capital and resilience scores, the wizard returns WAIT. Two factors override everything else: the Pink restricted-recovery zone gating restocking, and the complete absence of an identified buyer. Either one alone would trigger caution; together they drive the score below the GO and Caution thresholds.

The plan he gets is not "do nothing." It is a productive 60–90 day preparation period: register with the LGU now so he gets restocking priority when the zone clears, build the pen and biosecurity infrastructure (legal in Pink zones, just no live pigs), visit two raisers in nearby Light-Green areas, and identify two viajero contacts. When he re-runs the wizard, his composite score will jump from Wait into solid GO territory.

The capital advice is critical: do not spend the ₱400,000 yet. Restricted-zone restocking requires BAI Bantay-ASF protocol clearance, registered weanlings from approved multipliers, and often costs 15–25% more on weanling sourcing. He should keep ₱315,000 ready for the day his zone clears.